If not 73 then how much for BJP in UP ??

      Amit Shah & other BJP leaders are denying the possible effect of SP-BSP alliance in UP and claiming 74 seats is possible for BJP in UP but 72 is impossible. As a close observer of Indian politics for last 7 yrs I haven't seen BJP trying anything to minimize the damage a 100% vote transfer between SP-BSP  can have in UP. Though I do believe public is smart enough but it would have been better for BJP if they have mentioned few incidents of SP govt of 2012-17 & BSP govt 2007-12.

     Whenever I think about SP-BSP alliance my mind goes back to 2011-12 when I started taking active interest in politics due to emergence of Modi as a National leader & team Anna (Kejriwal & co). 2012 UP election was primarily a contest between SP & BSP and the 1st news that came out on news channels after SP's victory was "Dalit Basties(huts)" were burnt in the midnight by the SAMAJWADI PARTY CADRE after the elections results were announced. Leaders and workers may forget these incidents because it's about their survival but can the common people forget & forgive these incidents ? The answer is NO. Surprising enough even BJP leaders have forgotten this incident & no one has mentioned it so far in television debates or in mega Rallies.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/story/violence-uttar-pradesh-after-samajwadi-party-stunning-win-95481-2012-03-10

WHAT OPINION POLLS ARE SAYING

     Almost all survey agencies started with giving BJP only 20-35 seats in UP but the election campaign gained momentum when PM Modi & Amit Shah started campaigning and as expected few of these agencies are giving BJP 45+ now. There are two methods used by polsters in opinion polls:
1. Survey of individual seats
2. Survey in the entire state and on the basis of total vote share calculation of seats using formulas.

    The former set of polsters are projecting 45-50 for BJP and later is predicting 25-40.

     My opinion is in a triangular contest in which two parties with completely different support base like SP & BSP join hands you just CAN'T EXPECT 100% VOTE TRANSFER and calculate seats mathematically due to the reason mentioned above in the introductory part. For states like UP(SP-BSP) & Bihar(BJP-JDU) I will always prefer a seat specific poll rather than a mathematical one.

WHERE DOES BJP STANDS ON THE BASIS OF 2014 VOTE SHARE

    BJP got 50%+ votes in 20 seats in UP in 2014 & on the basis of ground reports & personal feedback with friends I can say BJP will win 18 of these seats easily. One may ask how can you expect BJP to retain all of it's 2014 votes despite UNEMPLOYMENT & FARMERS being the core electoral issues this time. The answer is I am not expecting it but If you think that unemployment & farmers will have a negative impact BUT SCHEMES like AYUSHMAN BHARAT, SWATCH BHARAT, UJJWALA etc won't have a positive impact in favour of BJP then you are FOOLING youself. Due to the poor performance of Hema Malini & Menka Gandhi it is very hard for BJP to win Pilibhit ( Due to poor candidate selection by SP-BSP Pilibhit is sure shot fir BJP now) & Mathura but rest 18 seats where BJP crossed 50% mark in 2014 are sure shot seats for BJP in 2019 also.

   There are 8 seats where BJP got 45%+ votes in 2014 and is ahead of SP-BSP combined vote share of 2014 & if cong gets only 5% votes and BJP gets 5% less votes even then BJP will win these 8 seats easily.
    There are 10 seats in which BJP got 39-47% votes and was ahead of the combined SP-BSP votes share by a decent margin because Cong got 10%+ votes in those seats. In 2019 if Cong's vote share decreases by 5% in these seats which is highly unlikely BJP will still sail through these seats as well.

     So it is almost impossible for BJP to loose these 36 seats even in the worst case scenario like 100% vote transfer between SP & BSP and 5% reduction in the votes share of Cong.

   There are around 15 seats in UP where Bjp got 40%+ votes and margin between the vote share of BJP & of SP-BSP combined in 2014 is around 5% in the favour of SP+BSP. These are the seats where even if the alliance manages to get 90% vote transfer and cong manages to retain whatever it got in 2014 even then BJP must sail through.

     So my analysis says even in the worst case scenario of 100% vote transfer between SP-BSP BJP is starting with lead in 40 seats and in case of the best possible 85% vote transfer between SP+BSP, BJP is starting with a lead in 50-55 seats.

THE CLIFFHANGERS

     Hema Malini, Menka Gandhi, Varun Gandhi & Satyapal Singh are going to the elections with less chances of winning and except Satyapal Singh in Baghpat all 3 of them has the capability of winning on their own. Satyapal Singh is marginally behind Jayant Chaudhary and even a small 5% swing in his favour due to Modi magic can help him win Baghpat this time.
    (Editing the blog on 23 April on the day of polling) Varun Gandhi is winning Pilibhit hands down. Ground reports from Pilibhit is SP-BSP candidate Hemraj Verma is a GOON and by fielding him the ticket they have given a walkover to Varun Gandhi. Locals are saying if we elect Hemraj his people will become unstoppable and if we elect Varun he may not be available for our daily concerns here but he will live peacefully in delhi and do development work for us and we will live peacefully here in Pilibhiy.
     With a margin of just 1.07 lakh votes Amethi looks tricky with upper hand to the BJP. Infact Rahul Gandhi heading to Kerala the only safe state for Congress today suggests due to her continuous hard work of last 5 yrs Smriti Irani is more than capable of engineering the biggest electoral upset of last 3 decades.
     Mathematically Ghazipur looks sure shot for the alliance with 52%(SP-BSP in 2014) but Manoj Sinha is one of the best performing minister in the union cabinet and can't be underestimated in his home constituency.
      Anything can happen in Allahabad too where the SP-BSP got 46% votes in 2014 and BJP got 35% vote while Cong got 11%. Daughter of former MP & CM Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna, former Cong state president & sitting cabinet minister in UP govt Mrs Rita Bahuguna Joshi is contesting from BJP this time so with all the caste factors & big name the BJP will fancy it's chances in Allahabad as well and anything less than 100% vote transfer & any positive or negative change in Cong's vote share will swing Allahabad to BJP's kitty.
      Even Dimple Yadav won Kannauj with a margin of just 2% votes getting 44% votes while BJP got 42%. It is very unlikely that she will retain Kannauj in 2019 simply because 100% vote transfer can't be expected and any increase in BJP's vote share can upset the Yadav family.
      Moreover there are 10 such seats like Moradabad, Rampur, Banda, Kesarganj, Ambedkar Nagar, Mohanalalganj, Dhaurahra where anything less than 80% vote transfer between SP-BSP is sufficient for BJP to win.
     There are 2 seats in which Mukhtar Ansari's Quami Ekta Dal got 16% & 17% votes in 2014 & BJP comfortably won both these seats and is mathatically just 2% behind SP+BSP today. Ansari is not in good terms with SP after the humiliation he faced from Akhilesh which led to the division of SP. These two seats should also easily go to the BJP in 2019. The Peace Party got 10% votes in 2 seats in 2014 and there role and vote share can effect these seats. Congress has the ability to further damage the alliance in about 10 more seats.
       In 2014 Mulayam Singh Yadav won Azamgarh in a triangular contest with a small margin of just 6% getting just 35% votes. Though combined vote share of SP+BSP makes it 63% and Akhilesh Yadav himself contesting from Azamgarh makes it no less than impossible but BJP candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav (Nirahua) is no small name either and possibility of Nirahua+Modi magic+division of BSP votes can't be completely ruled out.

FINAL SEATs PREDICTION

      The above analysis shows BJP has upper hand in 50 seats today 5-8 seats are marginal ones which are likely to go BJP's way in the worst case scenario. I stick my neck and say 55 is very much possible for the BJP.

      The best case scenario for BJP is that after these 55-60 seats there are about 15 more seats where Cong & small regional parties can damage the SP-BSP alliance, and there is a reason why Amit Shah so confidently say "73 ka 74 hoga 72 nahi ho sakta". Though i feel he is saying so to motivate the cadre as he did in Gujarat last year. But what he is saying can't be ruled out completely because analytically it is not IMPOSSIBLE.

Disclaimer: I have used India Today's link and Aajtak's screenshot as source I am not aware of copyright clause if there are any. I am solely responsible for the burn the content of the article or it's grammar & vocabulary may give to anyone in the govt or in opposition. I have been a Hindi medium student for most part of my life, I tried my best to commit less grammatical mistakes & use simplest of English words because that's what I am comfortable in using due to poor vocabulary.