Why Atishi (Ab Mat) Marlena is afraid of Gautam

LS elections in Delhi are very interesting the AAP which claims that they have done tremendous amount of work in Delhi in last 4 yrs started their campaign by seeking an alliance with a ZERO MLA/MP party in Delhi to defeat the COWARD & PSYCHOPATH led BJP.
Strange part is Modi ruined Delhi, did nothing for Delhi, you did everything in Delhi, transformed everything in Delhi but still a party that swept 67 out of 70 seats in assembly elections in 2015 needs an alliance to defeat a COWARD Modi ( though it's quite clear who the COWARD actually is).

Atishi Marlena started the LS election campaign in late 2018 itself BY CHANGING HER NAME from Atishi Marlena to Atishi Singh allegedly because she feared that her full name may suggests to voters that she is a Christian while she a actually a RAJPUT as the news was published in all media houses. Interesting part is for 37 years of her life she never felt the need to change that awkward name but when it was decided that she will contest 2019 LS elections only then she realised that she needs to get rid of this Marlena curse.

Where did that Marlena came from is also interesting Atishi's father is/was a hardcore communist and hence by merging MARx & LENin he made Marlena. It is said that communists don't believe in any RELIGION & CASTE system so her father too never believed in being a Rajput. But suddenly in last few months in 2018 Atishi decided to START BELIEVING IN CASTE SYSTEM & became an over Kshatrani.
https://twitter.com/msisodia/status/1122151057944002560?s=19

Though in the process Delhi's SUPER HYPED EDUCATION minister forgot the fact that Rani Laxmibai wasn't a Rajput girl but a Brahman by birth.

Coming to the recent controversy frankly speaking I did saw some people making fun of this NAYE TARAH POLITICS of CONVERSION to Rajput from Communism when she changed her name but off late in last few months I didn't see anyone even making fun of her leave alone spreading rumours.

Fact is when she changed her name last year the reason behind that was published on all media houses that it has been done to make sure people know that she is not a Christian but a Rajput. But now looking at the entire controversy I feel the seeds of this controversial were sowed last year itself and by leaking it in the media the AAP made its intent clear.

Frankly speaking Atishi was the only AAP candidate who can win a seat in Delhi because of the HYPER ADVERTISED educational reforms in Delhi while nothing on ground there is a lot in Facebook. Still due to his extreme popularity a cricketer and as Social Worker Gautam is favorite to win East Delhi seat. Everyone knows what Gautam has done as a cricketer for the country but post cricketer he has been involved in various Social Campaigns and Charity work especially for the windows and kids of our Armed Forces. That's exactly why in place of talking about their work(or the lack of it) of last 4 years Kejriwal & his team is busy questioning Gautam Gambhir's voter ID issues, spreading rumours about the cancellation of Gautam's candidature and highlighting Atishi's caste 10 times a day on various social media platforms when there is no BJP leader saying anything about her caste or religion.

I sincerely believe your 4 years of excellent governance (as you claimed before elections were announced) was enough to defeat the COWARD Modi but the way you are getting involved in Temple Run, which is the last thing a Communist can do & manufacturing IRRELEVANT issues day by say It looks like a repeat of 2014 (i.e 7-0 in favour of BJP) is just a matter of time.

Priyanka Gandhi can contest from Varanasi was the silliest thing by Indian media in 2019 so far

Indian media never misses any chance to surprise us with their WILD IMAGINATIONS in the name of source based information. Priyanka Gandhi can contest from Varanasi was the latest and by far the silliest one. Priyanka too never really rubbished the news as she was getting fokat ka air time which all politicians desperately need in the election times. She even gave it wings by slightly tilting her Grand Maa like "nose" and media went Gaga over it and few may have had orgasm thinking the tilt meant Yes I am contesting.

Yesterday when the news came out that she is actually not going to contest from Varanasi then few media people specially from India today leaked another source based news that Priyanka actually wanted to contest but Rahul denied saying he doesn't believe in big leaders fighting with each other. Though Rahul Kanwal didn't name that India today reporter but we can easily guess the name must be the same old Darbari Manishkar Aiyyer's favorite Mausami Singh (it's an assumption). This source based news was leaked so that Priyanka can claim the high moral ground on the issue. Though few ours ago today another news breaked that Sam Pitroda said it was none other than Priyanka herself who rejected the idea of contesting against Modi.

Now coming to the ground reality of Cong in UP frankly speaking Priyanka Gandhi CAN NOT win on any seat from UP on Cong's ticket without the support of Akhilesh Yadav except in
1. Lucknow (If Rajnath Singh won't contest)
2. Dhaurahra (If Jitin Prasad supports her)

If we talk about 2014, Modi got 56% votes in Varanasi , Kejriwal got 20% and SP,BSP and Cong couldn't even save their deposits. Now with no Kejriwal and after 5 yrs of Modi's work in Varanasi there was no chance that even the moderate and politically neutral muslims will vote anyone but Modi. So Modi may get as much as 75% votes in Varanasi.

In such a scenario how stupid were those media people who actually thought Priyanka who couldn't dare to fight even from the safer seats like Lucknow & Dhaurahra can actually contest from Varanasi ? More stupid were those so called Journalists who even started campaigning in social media that Priyanka is taking on the bull by its horns, Modi is besieged in Varanasi itself by Priyanka now Rahul will take on rest of the BJP and Priyanka will keep Modi engaged in Varanasi. There were few saying Great strategy by Cong to field Rahul from a safe seat in Vayanard & engage Modi within Varanasi. I mean really ? You actually think that Cowardice move of running away from Amethi to fight from a safe seat in Kerala was a good STRATEGY ?

I just want to say one thing to these jokers in the media "Start doing some analysis of the ground reality atleast before making such a hype on the basis of SOURCE BASED NEWS" .

If not 73 then how much for BJP in UP ??

      Amit Shah & other BJP leaders are denying the possible effect of SP-BSP alliance in UP and claiming 74 seats is possible for BJP in UP but 72 is impossible. As a close observer of Indian politics for last 7 yrs I haven't seen BJP trying anything to minimize the damage a 100% vote transfer between SP-BSP  can have in UP. Though I do believe public is smart enough but it would have been better for BJP if they have mentioned few incidents of SP govt of 2012-17 & BSP govt 2007-12.

     Whenever I think about SP-BSP alliance my mind goes back to 2011-12 when I started taking active interest in politics due to emergence of Modi as a National leader & team Anna (Kejriwal & co). 2012 UP election was primarily a contest between SP & BSP and the 1st news that came out on news channels after SP's victory was "Dalit Basties(huts)" were burnt in the midnight by the SAMAJWADI PARTY CADRE after the elections results were announced. Leaders and workers may forget these incidents because it's about their survival but can the common people forget & forgive these incidents ? The answer is NO. Surprising enough even BJP leaders have forgotten this incident & no one has mentioned it so far in television debates or in mega Rallies.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/story/violence-uttar-pradesh-after-samajwadi-party-stunning-win-95481-2012-03-10

WHAT OPINION POLLS ARE SAYING

     Almost all survey agencies started with giving BJP only 20-35 seats in UP but the election campaign gained momentum when PM Modi & Amit Shah started campaigning and as expected few of these agencies are giving BJP 45+ now. There are two methods used by polsters in opinion polls:
1. Survey of individual seats
2. Survey in the entire state and on the basis of total vote share calculation of seats using formulas.

    The former set of polsters are projecting 45-50 for BJP and later is predicting 25-40.

     My opinion is in a triangular contest in which two parties with completely different support base like SP & BSP join hands you just CAN'T EXPECT 100% VOTE TRANSFER and calculate seats mathematically due to the reason mentioned above in the introductory part. For states like UP(SP-BSP) & Bihar(BJP-JDU) I will always prefer a seat specific poll rather than a mathematical one.

WHERE DOES BJP STANDS ON THE BASIS OF 2014 VOTE SHARE

    BJP got 50%+ votes in 20 seats in UP in 2014 & on the basis of ground reports & personal feedback with friends I can say BJP will win 18 of these seats easily. One may ask how can you expect BJP to retain all of it's 2014 votes despite UNEMPLOYMENT & FARMERS being the core electoral issues this time. The answer is I am not expecting it but If you think that unemployment & farmers will have a negative impact BUT SCHEMES like AYUSHMAN BHARAT, SWATCH BHARAT, UJJWALA etc won't have a positive impact in favour of BJP then you are FOOLING youself. Due to the poor performance of Hema Malini & Menka Gandhi it is very hard for BJP to win Pilibhit ( Due to poor candidate selection by SP-BSP Pilibhit is sure shot fir BJP now) & Mathura but rest 18 seats where BJP crossed 50% mark in 2014 are sure shot seats for BJP in 2019 also.

   There are 8 seats where BJP got 45%+ votes in 2014 and is ahead of SP-BSP combined vote share of 2014 & if cong gets only 5% votes and BJP gets 5% less votes even then BJP will win these 8 seats easily.
    There are 10 seats in which BJP got 39-47% votes and was ahead of the combined SP-BSP votes share by a decent margin because Cong got 10%+ votes in those seats. In 2019 if Cong's vote share decreases by 5% in these seats which is highly unlikely BJP will still sail through these seats as well.

     So it is almost impossible for BJP to loose these 36 seats even in the worst case scenario like 100% vote transfer between SP & BSP and 5% reduction in the votes share of Cong.

   There are around 15 seats in UP where Bjp got 40%+ votes and margin between the vote share of BJP & of SP-BSP combined in 2014 is around 5% in the favour of SP+BSP. These are the seats where even if the alliance manages to get 90% vote transfer and cong manages to retain whatever it got in 2014 even then BJP must sail through.

     So my analysis says even in the worst case scenario of 100% vote transfer between SP-BSP BJP is starting with lead in 40 seats and in case of the best possible 85% vote transfer between SP+BSP, BJP is starting with a lead in 50-55 seats.

THE CLIFFHANGERS

     Hema Malini, Menka Gandhi, Varun Gandhi & Satyapal Singh are going to the elections with less chances of winning and except Satyapal Singh in Baghpat all 3 of them has the capability of winning on their own. Satyapal Singh is marginally behind Jayant Chaudhary and even a small 5% swing in his favour due to Modi magic can help him win Baghpat this time.
    (Editing the blog on 23 April on the day of polling) Varun Gandhi is winning Pilibhit hands down. Ground reports from Pilibhit is SP-BSP candidate Hemraj Verma is a GOON and by fielding him the ticket they have given a walkover to Varun Gandhi. Locals are saying if we elect Hemraj his people will become unstoppable and if we elect Varun he may not be available for our daily concerns here but he will live peacefully in delhi and do development work for us and we will live peacefully here in Pilibhiy.
     With a margin of just 1.07 lakh votes Amethi looks tricky with upper hand to the BJP. Infact Rahul Gandhi heading to Kerala the only safe state for Congress today suggests due to her continuous hard work of last 5 yrs Smriti Irani is more than capable of engineering the biggest electoral upset of last 3 decades.
     Mathematically Ghazipur looks sure shot for the alliance with 52%(SP-BSP in 2014) but Manoj Sinha is one of the best performing minister in the union cabinet and can't be underestimated in his home constituency.
      Anything can happen in Allahabad too where the SP-BSP got 46% votes in 2014 and BJP got 35% vote while Cong got 11%. Daughter of former MP & CM Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna, former Cong state president & sitting cabinet minister in UP govt Mrs Rita Bahuguna Joshi is contesting from BJP this time so with all the caste factors & big name the BJP will fancy it's chances in Allahabad as well and anything less than 100% vote transfer & any positive or negative change in Cong's vote share will swing Allahabad to BJP's kitty.
      Even Dimple Yadav won Kannauj with a margin of just 2% votes getting 44% votes while BJP got 42%. It is very unlikely that she will retain Kannauj in 2019 simply because 100% vote transfer can't be expected and any increase in BJP's vote share can upset the Yadav family.
      Moreover there are 10 such seats like Moradabad, Rampur, Banda, Kesarganj, Ambedkar Nagar, Mohanalalganj, Dhaurahra where anything less than 80% vote transfer between SP-BSP is sufficient for BJP to win.
     There are 2 seats in which Mukhtar Ansari's Quami Ekta Dal got 16% & 17% votes in 2014 & BJP comfortably won both these seats and is mathatically just 2% behind SP+BSP today. Ansari is not in good terms with SP after the humiliation he faced from Akhilesh which led to the division of SP. These two seats should also easily go to the BJP in 2019. The Peace Party got 10% votes in 2 seats in 2014 and there role and vote share can effect these seats. Congress has the ability to further damage the alliance in about 10 more seats.
       In 2014 Mulayam Singh Yadav won Azamgarh in a triangular contest with a small margin of just 6% getting just 35% votes. Though combined vote share of SP+BSP makes it 63% and Akhilesh Yadav himself contesting from Azamgarh makes it no less than impossible but BJP candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav (Nirahua) is no small name either and possibility of Nirahua+Modi magic+division of BSP votes can't be completely ruled out.

FINAL SEATs PREDICTION

      The above analysis shows BJP has upper hand in 50 seats today 5-8 seats are marginal ones which are likely to go BJP's way in the worst case scenario. I stick my neck and say 55 is very much possible for the BJP.

      The best case scenario for BJP is that after these 55-60 seats there are about 15 more seats where Cong & small regional parties can damage the SP-BSP alliance, and there is a reason why Amit Shah so confidently say "73 ka 74 hoga 72 nahi ho sakta". Though i feel he is saying so to motivate the cadre as he did in Gujarat last year. But what he is saying can't be ruled out completely because analytically it is not IMPOSSIBLE.

Disclaimer: I have used India Today's link and Aajtak's screenshot as source I am not aware of copyright clause if there are any. I am solely responsible for the burn the content of the article or it's grammar & vocabulary may give to anyone in the govt or in opposition. I have been a Hindi medium student for most part of my life, I tried my best to commit less grammatical mistakes & use simplest of English words because that's what I am comfortable in using due to poor vocabulary.